UK Home Energy Data Report: updated 11 October 2026
What It Actually Costs to Heat Every UK House Type in 2026
Gas boiler vs heat pump for 8 UK house types, using what installs really cost under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme rather than what brochures say.
The Short Answer
A heat pump is now cheaper to run than a gas boiler in every house type we modelled, but it isn't cheaper to buy. Even after the £7,500 grant it costs £1,244 to £5,115 more than a new boiler, because the median install is £11,494 to £15,365 before the grant.
On a standard tariff the saving is too small to earn that back quickly: payback is 17 to 28 years, and in 6 of 8 house types it's longer than the 20 years we assume the heat pump lasts. Put it on a heat pump tariff and payback drops to 7 to 12years. If you're getting a heat pump, get the tariff too. Without it the money doesn't really work.
Key Findings
Based on the Ofgem price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026, the current £7,500Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant and median install costs from the government's own scheme statistics.
Yearly running-cost saving on a standard tariff. On a heat pump tariff it's £126 to £424
House types where a heat pump is cheaper upfront than a £2,750 replacement boiler, even after the £7,500 grant
How much more a heat pump costs upfront than a new boiler, after the grant
Payback on a heat pump tariff. On a standard tariff it's 17 to 28 years
The efficiency a heat pump needs to beat a 90% gas boiler at today's prices
Extra saving if you go all-electric and cap off the gas, because the gas standing charge goes too
How We Calculated This
Heat demand: the midpoint of the annual heat demand range for each house type, after basic insulation work (loft and cavity where the house has one). Both systems have to supply the same amount of heat, so the only difference in running cost is what each kWh of heat costs.
Gas: 7.97p/kWh (Ofgem cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026) through a 90% efficient condensing boiler, so heat costs 8.86p per kWh delivered.
Heat pump: 26.32p/kWh at the cap with a seasonal efficiency (SCOP) of 3.5, so heat costs 7.52p per kWh. On a heat pump tariff we assume a blended 20p/kWh, which is roughly what a heat pump doing most of its work in Cosy Octopus's cheap windows averages; that's 5.71p per kWh of heat. It's an estimate, as Octopus prices regionally and doesn't publish one national rate.
Standing charges: left out of the main numbers, because you pay the electricity one either way and most people keep the gas connected for a hob. If you cap off the gas entirely you also save the £108 a year gas standing charge.
Install cost: the median reported cost before the grant for an air source heat pump in the size band each house needs, from DESNZ Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics, August 2026 (installations with a paid voucher, England and Wales), financial year 2025/26. Across all sizes, the middle half of installs in April to June 2026 cost £11,128 to £15,627, so a quote anywhere in that range is normal. We then take off the £7,500 grant.
Payback and 10-year position: we compare against fitting a new combi boiler at about £2,750, because that's the real choice when your boiler needs replacing. The extra upfront cost is the heat pump after grant minus the boiler. Payback is that extra cost divided by the yearly running-cost saving. The 10-year position is ten years of savings minus the extra upfront cost. No energy price inflation, and servicing is treated as roughly the same for both.
Correction:an earlier version of this page used install costs of £8,000 to £14,000 and concluded that most homes paid less upfront for a heat pump than a boiler. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme data doesn't support those costs, so we've redone every number on this page with it.
The Numbers, House by House
Every UK house type. Gas boiler vs heat pump. After the £7,500 grant, compared with a £2,750 new boiler.
Victorian Terrace
Pre-1900 | Annual heat demand: 10,000 to 12,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 10 to 12kW
1930s Semi
1920s to 1940s | Annual heat demand: 7,000 to 10,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 7 to 10kW
1950s/60s House
Post-war | Annual heat demand: 6,000 to 9,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 6 to 9kW
Modern Terrace
Post-1970 | Annual heat demand: 5,000 to 8,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 5 to 9kW
Detached House
Any era | Annual heat demand: 11,000 to 16,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 9 to 16kW
Bungalow
Any era | Annual heat demand: 5,000 to 8,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 5 to 8kW
New Build
Post-2010 | Annual heat demand: 4,000 to 7,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 4 to 6kW
Flat / Apartment
Any era | Annual heat demand: 3,000 to 5,000 kWh (insulated) | Heat pump size: 3 to 6kW
What the Numbers Say
No house type is cheaper upfront than a boiler
The cheapest case is a flat or new build, where the heat pump is small and the median install is £11,494. Take off the £7,500 grant and you pay £3,994, which is still £1,244 more than a £2,750boiler. Bigger houses need bigger units and the gap widens from there. You'll see heat pumps advertised as costing the same as a boiler after the grant; on what installs actually cost in 2025/26, that's not what most people pay.
On a standard tariff, the payback is long
At the current cap a heat pump delivers heat at 7.52p per kWh against 8.86p from gas, so it does save money. But it's only 1.34p per kWh, which comes to £53 to £180 a year. Against an upfront premium of £1,244 to £5,115, that's 17 to 28 years to break even. After ten years on a standard tariff, none of the 8 house types are ahead of a boiler.
A heat pump tariff is what makes it pay
Run the heat pump on a time-of-use tariff and heat costs about 5.71p per kWh, so the saving more than doubles. Payback comes down to 7 to 12 years, and after ten years 6 of the 8 house types are ahead of a boiler. Not by a fortune: a 1930s semi is £234 ahead, a new build £484 ahead. The real payoff is the decade after that, since the heat pump should keep going for 20to 25 years. If your supplier doesn't offer a heat pump tariff, factor that in before you sign.
Capping the gas is worth another £108 a year
If the heat pump replaces everything that runs on gas, including the hob, you can have the supply capped and stop paying the gas standing charge. On a 1930s semi that takes the standard-tariff saving from £114 to £222 a year and cuts payback from 22 years to about 11. Ask your network operator what capping costs first, because it isn't always free.
Victorian terraces work, but only if you insulate first
Insulate a Victorian terrace and it needs about 11,000 kWh of heat a year, which costs £974 on gas and £827 on a heat pump. The 10 to 12kW unit it needs has a median install of £13,943, so you're £3,693over the cost of a boiler. On a standard tariff that's 25 years to earn back, which is too long. On a heat pump tariff the saving is £346 a year and payback is about 11 years. Insulating before you size the heat pump matters twice over: it cuts the bill, and it can drop you into a smaller, cheaper unit.
Detached houses are the hardest sum
A detached house has the biggest gas bill at about £1,195 a year, so it saves the most: £180 a year on a standard tariff or £424 on a heat pump tariff. But it also needs the biggest unit, with a median install of £15,365 for 12kW to 14kW, leaving £5,115 more than a boiler after the grant. That's 12 years to pay back on a heat pump tariff and 28 on a standard one. Get a proper heat loss survey, because an oversized unit costs more and runs less efficiently.
If your boiler still works, the sums are harsher
Everything above assumes you're replacing a boiler that's due anyway. If yours has years left in it, you're not saving the £2,750, so the real outlay is the full £3,994 to £7,865after the grant. The cheapest time to switch is when the boiler dies, provided you've got quotes lined up before it does.
The Elephant in the Room: Why Aren't More People Switching?
Heat pumps are now cheaper to run than gas, so why are so few homes switching? Three reasons:
1. Upfront cost. Even after the £7,500 grant, a heat pump typically costs £3,994 to £7,865, against about £2,750 for a new boiler. People who need heating fixed this week tend to buy the cheaper thing, and on a standard tariff the running-cost saving takes a long time to close the gap.
2. Installer shortage.There are roughly 3,000 MCS-certified heat pump installers in the UK. The government wants 600,000 installations per year by 2028. The maths doesn't work yet. Wait times of 3 to 6 months are common in some areas.
3. Confusion about suitability."My house is too old," "my radiators won't work," "it'll be too noisy": these are real concerns that have real answers, but most homeowners haven't found those answers. That's partly why we built this site.
Want to Run the Numbers for Your Home?
Our free calculator estimates your savings based on your house type, current heating system, and insulation level.
Sources & Methodology
- Energy prices: Ofgem price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 (gas 7.97p/kWh, electricity 26.32p/kWh, no VAT on electricity until 31 March 2027)
- Heat pump efficiency: SCOP 3.5, deliberately below the 3.87 average HeatPumpMonitor.org reports across 252 monitored air source systems (January 2026)
- Gas boiler efficiency: 90% (modern condensing boiler)
- Heat pump tariff: blended 20p/kWh, our estimate for a heat pump running mostly in Cosy Octopus's cheap windows (checked 18 September 2026)
- Heat demand figures: typical UK dwelling archetypes, adjusted for standard insulation improvements
- Installation costs: DESNZ Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics, August 2026 (installations with a paid voucher, England and Wales), published 24 September 2026. Table A1.3A, median cost before grant by capacity, 2025/26; Table Q1.1A, 2026 Q2 quartiles
- Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant: £7,500 for an air source heat pump (gov.uk)
- New combi boiler: about £2,750 fitted, typical 2026 UK price
Data compiled by UK Home Energy. Last updated 11 October 2026. Figures are estimates based on typical homes. Your actual costs will vary with your property, how you use your heating and your tariff.